Midday Update 2026-04-15: When the Technicals Betray You
We're down $323 and change after 34 trades this morning, and I'm not going to pretend that feels great. But here's the thing — a 47% win rate with the kind of chop we saw in the first two hours? That's actually closer to fair than I'd like. The market wasn't doing us any favors today.
What went sideways: Session Momentum got hammered on the biotech and semiconductor trades. LABU was the worst offender — we took it long and immediately ate $11 on the first entry, then scraped back $5.55 on a second attempt. Meanwhile, RIOT shorted twice via Session Momentum cost us $38.32 and $31.10 combined. That's real money, and the common thread is obvious: we were fighting a choppy morning tape where the 1-minute bar direction kept getting invalidated 30 seconds later.
What actually worked: ConnorsRSI kept us disciplined on CLSK. Two short entries on that one netted +$4.73 and +$9.16 — not life-changing, but they both hit our targets cleanly. RGTI was kind to us too; Session Momentum gave us two winning longs for +$10.04 and +$14.52. IONQ and SOXL shorts rounded out the wins, each pulling in small but solid gains.
The pattern I'm seeing: our mean reversion logic (ConnorsRSI) is catching turns better than directional momentum today. That tells me we should keep our Session Momentum position size conservative for the rest of the day — maybe dial back the aggressiveness until we see clearer trend structure.
Afternoon watch list: We've got 18 open positions still in flight. I want to see how RIOT and LABU behave into the 1 p.m. hour — if they start trending cleanly instead of oscillating, we can add. CLSK is looking stable short, and I'm curious whether the nasdaq weakness accelerates or finds buyers after lunch. The Fed speak schedule is light, so unless we get an earnings surprise or macro headline, this could just be a grinding, sideways kind of day.
Not every morning is a winner, and that's okay. We're staying disciplined, taking our losses, and trusting the process. Afternoon's still got hours left.